June 7, 2023

Economists do not expect gdp to fall in the third quarter

economists do not expect gdp to fall in the third quarter

According to the preliminary data for the euro zone published the day before, the german gross domestic product (gdp) in the third quarter was only stagnant compared to the previous quarter, the i announced on friday. In mid-september, the institute had still forecast a figure of minus 0.3. The federal statistical office will publish a report on 14. November to publish an initial estimate of economic activity in the third quarter.

"The economy in germany was slightly firmer in the summer than had previously been expected. Overall, however, the downturn continued, as overall economic capacity utilization fell further," commented i-okonomist stefan kooths. "The already unimportant question of a technical recession is on the brink of collapse. If at all, it would be homoopathic."

According to eurostat, economic output in the euro zone is expected to have risen by 0.2 percent in the third quarter, as in the previous quarter. "The estimate is based on data from 17 member states, covering 93 percent of the area’s economic output," the i economists write. "This also includes preliminary, previously unpublished data on german GDP."Data already published for france (up 0.3 percent), italy (up 0.1 percent), spain (up 0.4 percent), belgium (up 0.4 percent) and austria (up 0.2 percent), which together accounted for more than half of the euro area’s economic output, allow "fairly reliable conclusions" to be drawn about german gdp development.

Most economists have so far assumed that german GDP shrank again in the summer, following a minus of 0.1 percent in the spring. If economic output falls in at least two consecutive quarters, this is known as a technical recession. In this case, however, it is only a mild recession. The situation would be different if economic output for the year as a whole shrank compared with the previous year. However, no one is expecting this at the moment.


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